As President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares for his second term, echoes of trade tension between the United States and Mexico are resurfacing. On Monday, Mexico’s economy minister, Marcelo Ebrard, highlighted potential countermeasures if Trump enacts steep tariffs on Mexican exports. “If you put 25 percent tariffs on me, I have to react with tariffs,” Ebrard said, suggesting a resolute stance as trade dynamics between the nations face renewed strain.
In other words, Mexico is claiming they will engage in a trade war with the USA.
Seriously!? Do you think that will work?
Trump’s campaign trail message focused on placing tariffs as high as 25 percent on Mexican goods, escalating to 100 percent if Mexico failed to stem the flow of migrants and drugs to the U.S. Such drastic measures could disrupt Mexico’s economy, heavily reliant on the U.S., with 80 percent of its exports heading north. Yet, the fallout wouldn’t be confined to Mexico alone. Key U.S. sectors—including agriculture, semiconductors, and chemicals—are deeply invested in exporting to Mexico, the U.S.’s largest trading partner since overtaking China.
Apparently, Mexico hasn’t realized that the point of the tariffs is to force companies to open plants in the USA instead. Any escalation from Mexico would force the Trump administration to push even harder.
Economic analysts, such as Valeria Moy of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness, warn of the inherent risks: “A tariff war doesn’t end well,” she noted, emphasizing that negotiation, not retaliation, should be prioritized. Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, appears to agree, projecting a more calmer tone. Eager for dialogue, Sheinbaum stated her administration’s commitment to engaging with Trump’s transition team to foster understanding and prevent escalation. Her first phone conversation with Trump was described as “very cordial,” hinting at a diplomatic approach to mitigate conflict.
Ebrard’s nod to handling Trump’s threats “with cold blood and intelligence” suggests he is in way over his head.
Talk is cheap and the United States is an absolute powerhouse that could really create some issues if they play hardball.
