Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is emerging as an early favorite in a new hypothetical Democratic primary poll as party leaders and voters continue debating the future direction of the Democratic Party following its losses in the 2024 election cycle.
According to a new Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday, Buttigieg led the field with 18 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters. California Gov. Gavin Newsom followed closely behind at 16 percent, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York received 11 percent support. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and former Vice President Kamala Harris each earned 10 percent in the poll.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear came in with 9 percent support, while 18 percent of respondents said they remain undecided. The results suggest Democratic voters are still far from settled on a clear front-runner as attention slowly begins shifting toward the 2028 presidential race.
The poll also showed subtle movement compared to recent months. Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez, and Beshear all saw slight increases in support, while Newsom and Harris experienced small declines. Though it remains extremely early in the process, the numbers reflect growing interest in several Democrats viewed as potential future national leaders.
Buttigieg has fueled speculation about another White House bid through recent public appearances and comments. During an appearance at the National Action Network conference last month, Rev. Al Sharpton jokingly referenced Buttigieg’s previous presidential campaign and asked whether he should reserve a table for him again at Sylvia’s Restaurant in Harlem.
“You save me a seat, I’ll be there,” Buttigieg responded, though he stopped short of officially discussing any plans for 2028.
Buttigieg first gained national attention during the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, where he positioned himself as a younger, more moderate voice within the party. Since serving as Transportation secretary under President Joe Biden, he has remained a visible figure in Democratic politics and cable news appearances.
Newsom, meanwhile, continues to be viewed by many political observers as a likely contender for the Democratic nomination in 2028. As governor of California, he has built a national profile through his outspoken criticism of President Donald Trump and conservative policies. Because he is term-limited as governor, speculation about his political future has continued to grow.
Harris, who served as the Democratic nominee in 2024, has also left the door open to another presidential campaign. She recently said she “might” run again, which would make a future campaign her third run for the presidency.
Ocasio-Cortez has also drawn increasing attention from Democratic voters and activists. When asked earlier this month about speculation surrounding a future White House run, she downplayed the focus on political titles.
“They assume that my ambition is a title or a seat, and my ambition is way bigger than that,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “My ambition is to change this country.”
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted May 24-25 among 1,000 likely voters nationwide. The poll carried a credibility interval, similar to a margin of error, of 3 percentage points. Among the smaller group of 432 likely Democratic primary voters, the credibility interval was 4.7 points.
