New Democrat 2028 Candidate Poll Drops

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Kamala Harris remains the early favorite among Democratic voters looking ahead to the 2028 presidential race, according to a new national survey.

The latest Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll found the former vice president leading the field with support from 27% of Democratic and left-leaning voters. That puts her well ahead of her closest competitor, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who drew 14%.

Harris still holds a clear advantage, but the numbers also suggest her support has softened in recent months.

In October, Harris was backed by 33% of voters in the survey. By March, that figure had slipped to 31%. In the newest poll, she fell again to 27%. Newsom has also lost ground, dropping from 21% last fall to 14%.

The results point to a Democratic field that remains unsettled, even with the 2028 race still more than two years away. Several well-known Democrats are beginning to gain traction, while a sizable group of voters has not settled on anyone.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg posted one of the stronger showings in the survey. He reached double digits for the first time, drawing support from 11% of respondents. That marked a four-point increase from earlier polling.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York received 8% support, rebounding after a dip earlier this year.

Still, 17% of respondents said they were unsure whom they would support in a 2028 Democratic primary. That level of uncertainty leaves plenty of room for movement as the race develops.

Harris performed especially well with younger voters and Black voters. Among Black respondents, 49% said they would support her. She also drew 48% support from voters between the ages of 18 and 29.

The former vice president also led among voters without a college degree, earning 35% support in that group.

Even among white voters, Harris narrowly led the field with 17%. Newsom followed close behind at 16%, while Buttigieg was at 15%.

But Harris did not lead in every demographic.

Among voters 65 and older, Newsom held the strongest position. He received 23% support from that age group, compared with 15% for Buttigieg and 11% for Harris.

Newsom also narrowly led among voters with postgraduate degrees, drawing 19% support compared with Harris at 18%.

The survey was conducted nationally by Noble Predictive Insights from June 4 to June 6. It used an opt-in online panel and text-to-web cell phone outreach. The poll included 1,224 registered voters who identified as Democrats or left-leaning independents, including 1,013 Democrats and 211 independents.

The Center Square findings differ from another recent 2028 poll released last month, which showed a weaker position for both Harris and Newsom.

An Emerson College Polling survey conducted in late May found neither candidate breaking 20% in a crowded Democratic field. In that poll, Newsom was at 16%, down four points from February. Harris was at 10%, down three points.

That survey also showed other Democrats gaining ground. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro rose to 10%, while Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear climbed to 9%.

On the Republican side, the Emerson survey found Secretary of State Marco Rubio nearly tied with Vice President JD Vance for the nomination.

For now, the Center Square poll suggests Harris still has a meaningful lead among Democratic voters, even as her support has slipped.

Other Democrats in the survey remained well behind the top contenders. Mark Kelly and Shapiro combined for 9% support, while J.B. Pritzker, Wes Moore, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Chris Murphy, and Rep. Ro Khanna each drew smaller shares.

New York Post

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