The Seat Is Already Slipping Away
Former Vice President Kamala Harris won Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District by roughly 4 points in 2024. Yet Rep. Don Bacon held that same seat by just 6,000 votes. Now that Bacon is leaving, recent polls show Democrat Denise Powell leading the race. The “blue dot” is no longer just a threat; it is a probability. Without Don Bacon, Republicans face a real chance of losing this Omaha-area seat.
Bacon managed to keep the seat despite a leftward shift in the district. He was a centrist who broke with President Donald Trump when needed. Democrats now have their best chance to take the district thanks to his departure. The Washington Examiner reported that Powell has tried to tie her opponent to Trump. She argues he would “enable” the Trump administration if elected. This strategy relies on the president’s low approval ratings in the area.
Harding’s Plan Versus The Polls
Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding is the Republican candidate trying to hold the line. To win over Bacon’s voters, he has not hesitated to openly denounce the president. Harding told the Washington Examiner he is guided by an Oscar Wilde quote. He said, “Be yourself. Everybody else is already taken.” He believes this approach will help him win back the independent voters.
Spending in the race has slowed significantly as parties manage resources. More than $1.1 million in TV advertising was removed by Republicans from the seat. This is a significant spending slash as Harding currently lags behind Powell. Despite the cut, Harding did not signal unease about the money. He told the Washington Examiner that “it’s not money that we need.”We have been adhering to our budget for a long time since we assembled it, he insisted.
Harding claims his team has a plan and funding to execute it. A balanced budget is what he observed the City Council maintains annually. This confidence stands in stark contrast to the ad spending cuts and the polling deficit. The GOP faces a challenge to prove their candidate can win without the Bacon brand.
What Bacon Said About The Voters
The retiring representative refers to himself as a “Reagan Republican.” He spoke out against the cost of living increases and the Iran war. Bacon cast a vote to limit Trump’s tariff powers while directly rebuking Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
Harding must now prove he can be that check and balance without losing the base. The district has shifted, and the margin for error is gone. Bacon’s 6,000-vote win was a miracle in a district that voted for Harris by 4 points. That miracle cannot simply be repeated by another name on the ballot. The question is whether Harding can win over the independents who are wary of Trump.
If the GOP loses this seat, it signals a major shift in Nebraska politics. The “blue dot” is the most vulnerable spot for Republicans in the state. Harding’s success depends on his ability to separate himself from the national narrative. He must convince voters that he is different from the “rubber stamp” Bacon warned against. The election will show if the Bacon model of independence can survive without Bacon.
