Disney’s live-action remake of Moana may be heading toward a major financial disappointment after a weaker-than-expected opening weekend.The film debuted in first place at the box office, but its estimated $43 million opening raised questions about whether it can earn back its considerable costs.
The remake reportedly carried a production budget of roughly $250 million, and Variety estimated that Disney spent at least another $120 million on marketing. That would put the film’s total cost above $370 million before theaters and other partners take their share of ticket sales.
With that kind of price tag, the movie will need strong international earnings and solid staying power in the weeks ahead to avoid a substantial loss. Based on its early performance, some industry observers believe Disney could end up losing close to $100 million.
The timing of the remake may be part of the problem. The original animated Moana was released about a decade ago, but its sequel, Moana 2, arrived only two years before the live-action version. Critics have questioned whether audiences were ready to see essentially the same story again so soon, particularly because the remake closely follows the animated film.
Some have argued that Disney would have been better off waiting several more years before producing a live-action version. Others believe the studio should have focused on another animated sequel instead, especially since the franchise still had momentum in that format.
Disney has had major success with live-action remakes in the past. Its 2025 version of Lilo & Stitch reportedly earned more than $1 billion worldwide, while several other adaptations of animated classics have also performed well. Those films, however, were generally released after audiences had more time away from the original stories.
Moana appears to be facing a different challenge. The franchise has remained highly visible, and the release of a live-action remake so soon after Moana 2 may have made the film feel less like a major event and more like a familiar product being repackaged.
The situation has also invited comparisons to Disney’s live-action Snow White, which became one of the studio’s most expensive disappointments. That movie reportedly earned about $205 million worldwide against combined production and marketing costs that exceeded $400 million. Estimates suggested that Disney ultimately lost at least $170 million.
Snow White’s problems went beyond its budget. The film endured months of negative publicity, criticism over casting and creative decisions, political controversy, and repeated public disputes involving members of the cast. By the time it reached theaters, much of the conversation surrounding the movie had little to do with the story itself.
Moana has not faced the same level of controversy, but reviews have still been harsh. The film reportedly opened with a 35 percent positive rating from critics, while box-office projections were lowered several times before its release.
Even so, it is too early to declare the movie a complete failure. Family films can sometimes hold up well over several weekends, particularly during school breaks and holidays. International ticket sales could also improve the final numbers.
Disney does not appear ready to step away from the franchise. The studio has already announced that a third animated Moana movie is in development. That decision suggests the company still sees long-term value in the characters and story, even if the live-action remake struggles to justify its enormous cost.
For now, the film’s future will depend on whether audiences continue showing up after its disappointing opening. A strong second weekend could help stabilize its performance, but a steep drop would make the possibility of a major financial loss increasingly difficult to ignore.
