In a segment that raised eyebrows across political circles, CNN’s own chief data analyst Harry Enten admitted this week that the ongoing government shutdown hasn’t damaged Republican popularity—in fact, it might be doing the opposite. Speaking on-air with CNN host John Berman, Enten outlined new polling that suggests Republicans in Congress have actually seen a bump in approval, not just among their base, but also with independent voters.
The current government shutdown, which many Democrats have labeled a Republican-led crisis, has not led to the drop in support many political analysts expected. In fact, Enten’s breakdown showed that the Republican Party’s brand has improved slightly, with a net gain of two points overall, and a five-point increase specifically tied to congressional Republicans. While some might write that off as noise within a margin of error, Enten pointed out that the trend has been consistent and noticeable.
Even more interesting, Enten highlighted that Republicans aren’t just rallying their base. Independents, who often sway key elections, are showing more support as well. Since the shutdown began, approval among independents has jumped by eight points. That’s not a number that gets ignored in political war rooms.
The implications are significant, especially with the midterms only a year away. Enten compared today’s numbers to where Democrats stood during former President Trump’s first term. At that time, Democrats had an 11-point lead on the generic ballot. Today, with Trump once again in the White House and J.D. Vance serving as vice president, that lead has shrunk to just three points. Enten pointed out that this is the worst position Democrats have found themselves in at this stage during a Republican presidency in over two decades.
Berman, clearly surprised, asked multiple times if these trends were cause for concern for Democrats. Each time, Enten gave a factual, direct response: Yes, these numbers are concerning.
🚨 The numbers don’t lie.
Republicans’ approval rises 5 points since the shutdown — and +8 among independents.
Democrats’ playbook is backfiring. Americans know who’s keeping the doors shut — and it’s not the GOP. pic.twitter.com/jSloSEFo7r
— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) October 28, 2025
Republicans currently control both the House and Senate. Traditionally, when one party holds both chambers and a shutdown occurs, they are expected to bear the brunt of the political fallout. This time, the numbers don’t reflect that. In fact, they show that many voters either aren’t blaming Republicans or are actually rewarding them for holding firm. That changes the usual shutdown math and may explain why Republican leaders like House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate GOP Whip John Thune don’t seem in a rush to fold.
As stated in the Daily Wire:
“But the truth is, we’re not seeing that. What we’re seeing is the Republican brand has actually gotten better among independents and it’s also gotten better among Republicans as well, that Republican brand when it comes to those in Congress,” Enten added. “So again, what’s the electoral reason that Republicans would give in at this point?”
There’s also the timing to consider. With the shutdown happening in close proximity to the election season, both parties are looking at how the public responds. If the numbers continue trending in this direction, Democrats may face more internal pressure to pivot strategies or seek compromise.
It’s worth noting that these polling trends don’t mean the political landscape is locked. A lot can change between now and November 2026, and public opinion can shift quickly—especially if the shutdown starts impacting Americans more directly in their day-to-day lives. But as it stands now, the party taking more political heat isn’t the one holding the gavel.
This early data does not indicate who will “win” the shutdown battle, but it does suggest that Republicans are not paying a political price—at least not yet. Instead, the story so far is one of resilience for the GOP, and possible warning signs for Democrats looking ahead to what’s expected to be a highly competitive midterm cycle.
